Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 52999.742555 56186.306042 59381.158948 62822.038707 66420.546172 70070.170098 74048.847096
2024-10-13 47761.035088 52609.933965 57617.134840 63165.731014 69133.622574 75351.014072 82309.517315
2024-10-20 43838.515508 49782.388587 56065.060344 63183.314965 71006.598393 79325.047710 88820.837451
2024-10-27 40655.973192 47377.899632 54624.188707 62987.950798 72345.781248 82463.734306 94200.524895
2024-11-03 38849.492373 46287.880677 54442.304455 64003.102809 74861.717438 86766.898510 100761.089829
2024-11-10 37183.187804 45204.830831 54133.348386 64750.373002 76970.794500 90535.217465 106666.866682
2024-11-17 35517.164682 44000.849811 53578.218537 65116.205357 78560.649186 93652.559401 111791.802800
2024-11-24 33820.777490 42658.256983 52769.910187 65102.174654 79638.327364 96127.666946 116141.926704
2024-12-01 32475.119938 41653.623819 52287.543420 65405.034090 81031.124624 98927.658350 120844.862409
2024-12-08 31110.483698 40555.964023 51631.859391 65444.252302 82064.896726 101274.482437 124999.102516
2024-12-15 30335.833015 40132.911296 51747.053406 66373.441986 84133.247149 104826.617458 130575.992882
2024-12-22 29072.287099 39049.961102 51011.533711 66227.342374 84873.456079 106778.878717 134243.423531
2024-12-29 28462.198926 38771.647856 51259.440506 67291.587850 87103.784818 110553.872925 140157.400494
2025-01-05 27616.368512 38161.508750 51069.545374 67796.044995 88641.598733 113500.298437 145097.553946
2025-01-12 26611.305099 37307.025514 50538.245870 67843.805906 89593.190485 115723.185693 149161.813050
2025-01-19 25556.330124 36347.061710 49836.531113 67642.988820 90208.027953 117516.293973 152694.631390
2025-01-26 25136.322913 36198.155640 50152.421096 68718.857771 92414.558291 121270.177915 158651.616488
2025-02-02 24619.484761 35898.609574 50256.176381 69510.050606 94256.293613 124576.752810 164073.856517
2025-02-09 23961.213997 35384.754835 50060.147115 69897.275734 95574.069202 127229.057294 168693.603848
2025-02-16 23172.133525 34666.404670 49571.488326 69882.438136 96361.346886 129208.638842 172475.319236
2025-02-23 22558.946840 34166.443387 49352.002624 70202.948120 97568.782315 131713.931526 176924.191798
2025-03-02 21866.567669 33533.843420 48934.906756 70244.450908 98401.395704 133738.586840 180770.506668
2025-03-09 21569.269430 33439.854461 49231.776135 71227.676103 100461.210502 137333.693468 186628.068067